Each year we’re bombarded dozens of industry prediction lists. While they’re fun and usually interesting, it can start to get a little overwhelming as predictions came from all corners of the industry to predict everything that could possibly be predicted. Here VAN brings together some of the ones that caught our eye and lays them out thematically. Apologies to anyone we couldn’t fit in, but this post would have required a dedicated server of its own if we included everything.
In the US, eMarketer predicts the US market will enjoy an ‘aggressive 40% year-over-year increase from 2011, topping $3.1 billion in 2012’. Forrester go a bit further on in time to 2016, by which time they predict video advertising in the US will have grown to $5.4 billion. Gourmet Ads doesn’t offer figures but says video was its biggest area of growth in 2011 and expects that to continue into 2012.
On MediaPost, Diagonal View CEO Matt Heiman, a content production company, says:Online you are seeing the evolution of websites from text/photo to video, and of video becoming distributed beyond just the main portals. Also, GoogleTV – this is the early days in a massive shift. Who wins and who loses is still up in the air. It will be the start of the revolution.
Break Media’s Digital Advertising Trends report that says pre-roll and mobile will fuel the growth, with increased spend coming from TV budgets (32 per cent) as well as non-video budgets (45 per cent).
On Mashable, Adam Ostrow predicts there will be an ‘explosion of content for connected TV’s‘ as 65% of TV’s sold in 2012 will be be connected TV’s. Ostrow also points to the imminent arrival of Apple’s own TV within the next 18 months, Xbox’s addition of dozens of live channels and YouTube’s $100 million investment in web-only programming.
Video Ad Networks
On Videonuze, Metacafe‘s Erick Hachenberg says he thinks video ad networks will become more publisher friendly as agencies encroach on their turf with their own direct publisher relationships, while Healthination’s Raj Amin thinks there’ll be consolidation as video ad networks are acquired by larger and more traditional media companies.
Videos of Video Advertising Predictions for 2012
Follow the link for Tremor Video’s predictions for 2012 and, as part of their 2011 Digital Video Advertising Trends study, Break Media created this video summarising their views on what they think will happen in 2012:
Metrics and Pricing
AOL’s Ran Harnevo believes that the money that has been pouring into ad network coffers is going to drive an artificial race to the bottom on CPMs for audience extension buys. On Videonuze, HealthiNation’s Raj Amin predicts that CPMs wil rise and finally be given equal weight to TV buys, while Mashable’s Chris Shreiber thinks we’ll see the widespread adoption of CPV as advertisers look for more accountability.
On Mediapost, Tubemogul CEO Brett Wilson says there will be “increased focus by marketers on brand metrics and ROI measurement to justify shifting spending to online video from TV.” In the same post, Brian Fitzgerald, CEO of Evolve, a content producer, publisher, and ad representation company, says that ““any video that is shorter form, user-generated content (or otherwise not long form, professional video)” will earn lower CPMs and be forced onto the video exchanges, while ‘longer form, professional video and video running on premium sites’ will be sold for higher premium level CPMs.
On using the second screen while watching TV, Mashable predicts that the growing ubiquity of mobile will continue to transform how we watch TV, with start ups like Shazam and Into Now leading the charge (no mention of the Zeebox – probably because it’s still UK only). In a separate post Mashable also predict the integration of original branded content into broader marketing campaigns, as per the Old Spice campaign which combined 30-second slots with longer unique content.
This discussion of what is expected in 2012 was shot at Videoschmooze and features: Brent Horowitz, VP, Business Development at FreeWheel; Suzie Reider, Head of Ad Sales at YouTube and Google Display; Tracey Scheppach, EVP and Innovations Director at VivaKi, Starcom Mediavest; Andrew Snyder, Executive Director of Content Solutions at Yahoo; and Bill Lederer CEO at Kantar Video (moderator):
Speaking to NMK , Tremor Video‘s Daniel Ruch thinks Netflix will start running video advertising against their premium streams, of which Nielsen reported there were 220 million earlier in 2011. Over on Videonuze, Longtail Video CEO Dave Otten thinks Apple will dominate mobile video in 2012 due to the continued popularity of the iPhone and iOS.
Still Not Satisfied?
If, even after all that, your prediction itch still hasn’t been scratched, Videonuze did a great job of interviewing the leading CEOs in the run up to the new year and has provided a summary list of links to the various prediction lists they acquired from leading industry CEOs here. Plus on Techcrunch, WatchMojo’s Ashkan Karbasfrooshan (who contributed to VAN’s prediction list) provided a refreshingly unsexy list of things he thought wouldn’t happen in online video in 2012.